دانلود رایگان ترجمه مقاله تخمین پایایی حمل و نقل دریایی (نشریه الزویر ۲۰۱۳)

تخمین پایایی حمل و نقل دریایی: مطالعه ای روی دو مدل پایایی فازی

Reliability estimation of maritime transportation: A study of two fuzzy reliability models

Abstract

The progressive increase in marine vessel transportation, in recent years, is often a cause of congestion at sea and main cause of highly irregular vessel’s travel time. This greatly affects scheduling of the facilities at the harbor and also related logistics. As a result, the reliability value of any marine vessel becomes a crucial factor in associated decision making. Modeling the uncertainty in estimation of marine vessel reliability has been a research interest for quite some time now. This paper investigates the problem in a different sense and tries to model the uncertainties using expert’s opinions and their imprecise responses. Marine vessel transportation reliability is viewed in an entirely different perspective and framework. This paper initially proposed a transportation reliability estimation procedure considering 12 decision variables divided into three stages. Two realistic models based on fuzzy sets are subsequently developed; with two scenarios for the first model. The first model utilizes fuzzy arithmetic; whereas the second one is based on rule bases. The paper demonstrates how information based on experience of the experts on marine vessels could be used to obtain its reliability value. Both the models would be helpful where imprecision is an intrinsic attribute of the accessible data in case of sea going vessels.

۱ Introduction

Risk and reliability are significant operational issues of any transportation system. Sumalee and Kurauchi (2006), in a guest editorial of a special issue of Networks and Spatial Economics Journal focused on the reliability and emergency issues in transportation network analysis. In view of stringent international statutory requirements in the maritime transport segment, risk appraisal has become an important managerial tool for making critical decisions. Growing concern about the accidents, disasters and resulting environment impact has forced the attention on the hazards and associated risks involved in all the activities of every transportation system. Nowadays, a wide range of approaches and methods are available to estimate the risk and reliability. Both these are concerned with safety aspect of the system. Improved safety performances as regards to safety of the people, equipments and machineries, and protection of the environment are the prime aims. Risk and reliability assessment also helps in assessing the system’s operational performance measures and life cycle costing. It as well aids in optimizing various processes in the system. Risk management approaches have been universally adopted in the maritime transportation sector with the key objective of providing improved safety and enhanced protection to the environment. Development of risk-based practices, over the years, addressed both quantitative and qualitative techniques, suitable for investigation in diverse applications and purposes.

Recently, Celik et al. (2010) developed a risk based modeling approach to enhance the execution process of shipping accident investigation. Specifically, the paper addressed a fuzzy extended fault tree analysis that combined the effects of organizational faults and shipboard technical system failures under a unique risk assessment scheme. Balmat et al. (2009) presented a fuzzy approach for the MAritime RISk Assessment (MARISA) applied to safety at sea. In this analysis, a fuzzy risk factor composed of a static risk factor and a dynamic risk factor has been considered. In a recent paper, (Balmat et al., 2011) developed a decision-making system to maritime risk assessment. Ren et al. (2009) proposed an offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy Bayesian network. Yang et al. (2009b) suggested a subjective security-based assessment and management framework for maritime security using a fuzzy evidential reasoning approach. Additional recent papers in risk assessment and safety in maritime transportation include (EleyeDatubo et al., 2008; Hu et al., 2008; Koç, ۲۰۰۹; Liu et al., 2008a; Ting-rong et al., 2008; Yang et al., 2009a). Hadjimichael (2009) and Shyur (2008) studied risk assessment in aviation industry. Furthermore, other research investigations in marine transportation systems are (Grabowski et al., 2007; Kolowrocki and Soszynska, 2006; Kolowrocki et al., 2007; Liu et al., 2005; Sii et al., 2001; Wang, 2006; Wang et al., 2004).