دانلود رایگان ترجمه مقاله ارزیابی خطر کمی پروژه های حفاری افقی MINI، MIDI و MAXI – الزویر 2014
دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی ارزیابی خطر کمی MINI، MIDI و MAXI Horizontal پروژه های حفاری جهت دار با استفاده از تجزیه و تحلیل درخت خطای فازی به همراه ترجمه فارسی
عنوان فارسی مقاله: | ارزیابی خطر کمی MINI، MIDI و MAXI Horizontal پروژه های حفاری جهت دار با استفاده از تجزیه و تحلیل درخت خطای فازی |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله: | The quantitative risk assessment of MINI, MIDI and MAXI Horizontal Directional Drilling Projects applying Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis |
رشته های مرتبط: | مدیریت، مهندسی نفت و مهندسی معدن، مدیریت بحران، مدیریت پروژه، تونل و فضاهای زیر زمینی و مهندسی حفاری |
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نشریه | الزویر – Elsevier |
کد محصول | f386 |
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بخشی از ترجمه فارسی مقاله: 1. مقدمه |
بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی: 1. Introduction The objective of this work was to develop a mathematical model for the quantitative and qualitative risk assessment for the installation of underground utilities using Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) technology. HDD technology is used to install water, gas, heating, drain, sewers pipes and cables under obstacles such as rivers, busy streets, highways, airport runways, areas congested with buildings or underground utilities, and environmentally sensitive areas. The analysis of the risk factors for such investments and their mathematical description are included in the aim of this work. Many contractors who install underground utilities applying HDD technology are not able to carry out risk assessment in the project planning phase, as they do not have any mathematical model which allows to do it for various sizes of HDD installations. The contractors emphasize the necessity of risk assessment before starting the realization of the investment, as the estimation of the risk level is the starting point to analyze the project feasibility and cost estimation. Thanks to carrying out a risk assessment, a lot of serious economic and legal consequences connected with HDD failure e.g. the damage of other existing underground utilities, the damage of expensive HDD down-hole equipment, the damage to the installed pipeline, etc. can be avoided. Currently, there is also no risk management strategy available, which could be an effective tool to reduce the risk level. In (Woodroffe and Ariaratnam, 2008) the authors suggested using the total risk index model as a guide for the overall risks of an urban utility project. The following sub indexes were analyzed: a contingency plan, the determining bid price, the eco-social factors and consideration factors. Recently papers (Abdelgawad et al., 2010; Ma et al., 2010) have appeared in literature in which the authors tried to carry out the risk assessment for HDD installations. In (Abdelgawad et al., 2010), the authors evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively the risk on the example of one HDD installation. This model did not take into consideration some of the risk factors which have a significant influence on the total risk level (such as: various design mistakes, the downtime in installation, the unexpected natural and man-made obstacles, various problems with HDD construction works, problems with supply, materials, quality, the legal conditions and economic problems). In (Ma et al., 2010) the authors suggested a model for the risk assessment only for MAXI HDD projects, applying the Analytical Hierarchy Process and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method. In this work the risk factors were not developed to a sufficient level of detail, therefore when carrying out the risk assessment of a particular element, some important components may be missed and the final risk level may be incorrect. The Analytical Hierarchy Process is said to be controversial, as the decision-maker preferences are characterized by the relative importance assessment of the sub criteria of all the hierarchy levels. Both of the presented models did not allow to consider the project specificity (the optional possibility of applying various tools and machines). In (Shahriar et al., 2007) the fundamental of risk classification and mitigation in mechanized rock tunneling were presented. The main geotechnical hazards and some important mitigation measures were shown. It was emphasized that that risk assessment stages and the effect of risk mitigation measures are very important elements during the early engineering phase. In the literature no risk assessment model for HDD technology was found, which takes into account the risk management strategy. It indicates the need to develop a new mathematical model for the risk assessment in HDD technology, taking into consideration the important risk factors, the installation specificity (the optional possibility of applying a mud cleaning system, mud motor, ballasting system, roller blocks, roller cradles and side cranes) and the possibility of including the risk management strategy. That is why it is important to discuss the problem of risk assessment again and take into consideration a number of additional risk factors which have not been considered so far. Moreover, the proposed model is aimed to be applied to HDD installations of various sizes, namely MINI HDD, MIDI HDD and MAXI HDD. For any of the presented models described in the literature so far it is improper to apply for each size of installation, namely the model suggested in (Abdelgawad et al., 2010) would be better for MINI HDD, and the model suggested in (Ma et al., 2010) could be applied only for MAXI HDD installations. In the conventional approach to solving the fault tree (FT), the probability theory is used. The crisp values of the basic events probabilities must be known. In practice, it is very difficult and sometimes even impossible to get crisp values of the basic events probabilities for HDD projects. Even when the crisp values of probabilities are obtained, HDD experts, who assessed the probabilities indicated that they are imprecise, deficient and vague, because the basic events are not stationary and there is often the lack of suffi- cient data to estimate the crisp probabilities of the basic events. Applying the conventional approach to solving FT may lead to gaining insufficient information in the risk analysis or increasing the uncertainty of the analysis. To overcome those difficulties, the Fuzzy Fault Tree was employed in this work. Fuzzy based solutions techniques allow to generate the basic events failure probabilities even when we are able to obtain only a little quantitative information. The fuzzy sets theory and possibility theory, which are used in Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis, allowed to deal with ambiguous, inaccurate and quantitatively incomplete information. The linguistic terms (very low, low, medium, high and very high) were applied in this work to assess the probability of the individual basic events occurrence. Applying the fuzzy sets theory allowed for a gradual transition between the linguistic terms. |