دانلود ترجمه مقاله استراتژی تجارت آب مجازی درون کشوری جهت کاهش اثرات کمبود آب در ایران

بخشی از ترجمه:

چکیده

افزایش کمبود آب موجب به وجود آمدن محدودیت های جدی در پایداری تولید غذا در بسیاری از بخش های جهان گردیده است. به منظور مطالعه این وضعیت در سطح منطقه ای، ما ایران را به عنوان نمونه مورد مطالعه انتخاب کردیم و به تجزیه تحلیل این پرداختیم که چگونه یک راهبرد تجارت مجازی آب درون کشوری(VWTS) می تواند به بهبود تولید غلات و نیز حل مسئله کمبود آب کمک کند. این مسئله از نظر راهبردی تا حدودی مستلزم تعدیل و تنظیم ساختار الگوی کشت (ASCP) و تجارت غذای بین منطقه ای است که در آن عملکرد محصول و تولید کنندگی آب و نیز شرایط اقتصادی و اجتماعی در نظر گرفته شود. ما یک قالب کاری سیستماتیک را برای ارزیابی (ASCP) در سطح استانی تحت نیرو های محرک و محدودیت های متعدد ایجاد کردیم. یک مدل ترکیبی چند منظوره و خطی ایجاد و با روش برنامه نویسی خطی حل شد. داده های ۱۹۹۰-۲۰۰۴ برای توجیه نوسانات سالانه دسترسی به آب و تولید غذا استفاده شدند. ۵ سناریو با هدف بیشینه سازی تولید ملی غلات ضمن رسیدن به سطوح خود کفایی گندم تحت محدودیت های متعدد آب و خاک در تک تک استان ها طراحی شدند. نتایج نشان می دهد که تحت سناریوی معیار، که تداوم استفاده از آب موجود و سیاست غذا را در سطح ملی فرض می کند، برخی سناروی های (ASCP) می توانند تولید گندم بیشتری با آب کم تر کنند. بر اساس سناریو های متعدد (ASCP)، ما چنین نتیجه می گیریم که ۳۱ درصد تا ۱۰۰ درصد کمبود گندم کل در استان های دارای کمبود آب را می توان با استان های دارای گندم مازاد جبران و تامین کرد. در نتیجه، استان های دچار کمبود آب ۳.۵ میلیارد متر مکعب تا ۵.۵ میلیارد متر مکعب آب مجازی با وارد کردن گندم مازاد استان های دیگر را دریافت می کنند.

بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:

Abstract. Increasing water scarcity has posed a major constraint to sustain food production in many parts of the world. To study the situation at the regional level, we took Iran as an example and analyzed how an intra-country “virtual water trade strategy” (VWTS) may help improve cereal production as well as alleviate the water scarcity problem. This strategy calls, in part, for the adjustment of the structure of cropping pattern (ASCP) and interregional food trade where crop yield and crop water productivity as well as local economic and social conditions are taken into account. We constructed a systematic framework to assess ASCP at the provincial level under various driving forces and constraints. A mixedinteger, multi-objective, linear optimization model was developed and solved by linear programming. Data from 1990– ۲۰۰۴ were used to account for yearly fluctuations of water availability and food production. Five scenarios were designed aimed at maximizing the national cereal production while meeting certain levels of wheat self-sufficiency under various water and land constraints in individual provinces. The results show that under the baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of the existing water use and food policy at the national level, some ASCP scenarios could produce more wheat with less water. Based on different scenarios in ASCP, we calculated that 31% to 100% of the total wheat shortage in the deficit provinces could be supplied by the wheat surplus provinces. As a result, wheat deficit provinces would receive 3.5 billion m3 to 5.5 billion m3 of virtual water by importing wheat from surplus provinces. Correspondence to: K. C. Abbaspour (abbaspour@eawag.ch) 1 Introduction Population growth and industrialization on the one hand and extended drought, environmental concerns, and a possible adverse impact of climate change on the other hand are the major limiting factors on water resources threatening food security in developing countries of arid and semi-arid regions. With no significant room to expand cultivation areas in these regions, increased food demand will have to be met through sustainable agricultural production, which entails improved management of the available resources and development of crop production strategies (Qadir et al., 2007) as well as import from outside (Yang et al., 2006; Allan, 1997). Large parts of Iran are characterized as arid and semiarid environment. The country is enduring increasing water scarcity, which has posed a major constraint to the expansion of crop land and food production. Agriculture is by far the largest water user in Iran, accounting for more than 90% of the total water withdrawal. Despite the scarce water resources, wheat self-sufficiency has long been an important national goal, which was temporarily achieved in 2004. However, there is a general doubt about Iran’s ability to maintain this level of production amid the mounting water challenges, among other obstacles. In general, the agricultural water use efficiency is low in Iran. The average irrigation and conveyance efficiency is around 36% at the national level. For many provinces, the efficiency can be as low as 15%. Main reasons for low efficiency are improper design of irrigation facilities, poor maintenance, careless operation, negligible water pricing, as well as inefficient division of responsibilities among different agencies (Pazira et al., 1999; Kehsavarz et al., 2005). Efforts to increase the Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1418 M. Faramarzi et al.: Analysis of intra-country virtual water trade strategy agricultural water use efficiency have been made through increasing crop water productivity (CWP) at plant and field levels (Ardakanian, 2005). But this has not so far alleviated the water scarcity problem, as in many areas the situation has been worsening. Facing the sober challenges, there have been renewed calls and efforts from the government of Iran to improve water resources management and plans to mitigate water scarcity. The long term policies are to invest on water projects, exploit new water resources, and investigate the benefits from adjustment of structure of cropping pattern (ASCP) to deal with the growing water shortages (National Research Council, NRC, 2005; The 5th World Water Forum by Iranian Ministry of Energy, 2009). So far, however, bulk of the investment is allocated for harnessing and regulating water resources via construction of dams, water transfer projects, and building irrigation networks (http: //icerik.worldwaterforum5.org/files/ThematicDocuments/ SessionDocuments/18 03 2009/Ayvansaray/). Little effort has so far been made in developing a strategy for ASCP. Iran currently has 19 million ha of agricultural land, accounting for 12% of the total area of the country. Of the total agricultural land, over 60% is devoted to wheat, 20% to barley, 5% to rice, 2% to maize and the rest of the land is covered by other crops. Cereals are the largest user of irrigation water. Of the total water diverted to irrigate cereal crops, wheat uses more than 70%. This amount of water exceeds the internal renewable blue water resources (IRWR) in many provinces located in central dry regions. Therefore, a large amount of water is extracted from fossil groundwater or water transfer projects to meet the water demand. It was found by Faramarzi et al. (2009) that about 53% of the area under cultivation of wheat in Iran is located in water scarce sub-basins. Of the total wheat production (10.83 million tons) in the country, 4.4 million tons of irrigated wheat and 1.9 million tons of rainfed wheat are produced every year in water scarce regions. This has a significant implication for future agricultural food production. The virtual water trade (VWT) introduced by Allan (1997) has been seen as one of the ways to improve water use ef- ficiency and to mitigate water scarcity at the regional level through ASCP and interregional food trade (Chapagain et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2006; Liu and Savenije, 2008; Liu et al., 2007). What we refer to as “virtual water trade strategy” (VWTS) in this paper involves adjustment of the structure of cropping pattern and interregional food trade where crop yield (y) and CWP, national food production objectives, as well as local economic and social conditions are taken into account as discussed in Sect. 2.2. VWT has so far been mainly studied in the arena of international trade. A set back in developing a clear VWTS internationally has been the exercise of trade sanctions imposed on importing countries at will. This although did not stop VWT, it had the effect of deterring the countries from formulating clear and long-term VWT strategies as an effective policy option for combating local water scarcities. The principles of VWT are also applicable within a country like Iran where there are lesser political barriers in interprovincial trades and significant regional variations in climate, resources and crop production. In such a situation, water resources can be used more efficiently at the national level if crops are produced in the regions/provinces where CWP is large and exported to the regions where CWP is small. However, any change in cropping structure is subject to many factors ranging from natural resources, ecological, socio-economic, and institutional conditions. Hence, there is a need for a systematic framework to support the policy makers in the planning of the structure of regional cropping pattern to meet certain national goals of food production while taking these constraints into consideration. Based on the best of our knowledge, so far such a study has not been seen in the virtual water literature. The current study is a novel step to develop a systematic framework for implementing VWTS in Iran through ASCP. Improving the water resources management through ASCP can be formulated as a multi-criteria analysis problem and solved by optimization methods. In the literature there are different techniques dealing with multi-criteria analysis problems. Very broadly they can be grouped into two categories: participatory based decision making processes and non-participatory based optimization techniques. The first category includes methods such as: multiple-criteria utility functions (e.g. Prato and Herath, 2007), analytical hierarchy process (AHP) (e.g. Mau-Crimmins et al., 2005), and Electre (e.g. Kangas et al., 2002; Figueria and Roy, 2002). In the second category, the techniques of linear programming (Makowski et al., 2000), genetic algorithms (Ines et al., 2006), meta modeling (Mousavi and Shourian, 2010), and goal programming (Foued and Sameh, 2001; Agha, 2006; Al-Zahrani and Ahmad, 2004; Yang and Abbaspour, 2007) are more widely used. The first category might not be relevant in this study because it is interview-based and calls for direct participations of decision makers and other stakeholders. As our project is large scale with multiple-criteria, the second category would be more suitable to apply. In the second category, goal programming is one of the popular multi-criteria optimization techniques used for water resources management and planning. It provides a way of considering more than one objective function. It sets a specific numeric goal for each objective, and then seeks a solution that maximizes the weighted sum of objectives while taking a set of constraints into consideration.

دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی

خرید ترجمه فارسی مقاله با فرمت ورد

خرید نسخه پاورپوینت این مقاله جهت ارائه