دانلود رایگان ترجمه مقاله مدیریت ریسک برای استقرار مینی شبکه در مناطق روستایی (نشریه الزویر 2016)

مدیریت ریسک برای استقرار مینی گرید در مناطق روستایی

Risk Management for Mini-Grid deployment in Rural Areas

Abstract

A significant challenge for mini-grid deployment is a communication and language gap between mini-grid developers and investors about mini-grid risks and their management. While investors usually think in financial risk/return dimensions and are often unaware of the specific challenges in the field of mini-grid electrification, project developers and mini-grid operators have immense expertise in overcoming these specific challenges in terms of preventing threats but often do not use risk management tools as usually expected by bankers and investors.

1 Risk Management for Mini-grids

1-1 Introduction

For the year 2014, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated the number of people without access to electrical energy at 1.3 billion. The IEA also forecasts that in Africa, the number of un-electrified people will probably even increase from 589 million to 689 million. This estimate is mainly caused by population growth being higher than the increase in the electrification rate. Private investments in renewable energy have increased significantly worldwide over the years 2004 to 2012 demonstrating a market opportunity resulting from the falling prices of individual technologies like Solar Photovoltaic.

Benefitting from these trends, the decentralized electrification sector is also seeing an emergence of investor interest. Improving policy and regulatory frameworks in certain regions is drawing the attention of entire business communities and requiring the electrification industry to engage in the sector more actively and with greater professionalism. With increased private sector interest in the operation of rural electrification facilities and higher accountability requirements by financiers, the pressure to develop strategies that reduce the risk of electrification schemes failing is high. Trends like these are expected to facilitate more professional engagement of rural electrification actors and draw more investment to the rural electrification sector. Today, holistic business models are already being piloted around the world. Rural electrification project developers in East Africa and South Asia are innovating by taking different stakeholder demands into account and catering to various types of customers, leveraging managerial expertise and employing solid financial planning.