دانلود ترجمه مقاله رابطه میان واردات و صادرات در رشد اقتصادی آزادی تجاری – مجله تیلور فرانسیس

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اکثر تحقیقات قبلی تنها بر تاثیر توسعه صادرات بر رشد اقتصادی متمرکز شده در حالیکه نادیده گرفتن پتانسیل رشد سهم واردات را افزایش می دهد. این مقاله ارتباط بین تجارت و رشد اقتصادی در آرژانتین، کلمبیا و پرو را بررسی می کند و هم بر نقش صادرات و هم واردات تاکید دارد. آزمون علیت گرنجر و توابع پاسخ انگیزشی برای بررسی اینکه آیا رشد تجاری رشد اقتصادی را تحریک می کند یا بالعکس مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان می دهد که تمرکز منحصر به فرد از مطالعات گذشته بر صادرات به عنوان موتور رشد ممکن است گمراه کننده باشد. گرچه تعدادی شواهد تجربی در حمایت از رشد اقتصادی تحت تاثیر صادرات وجود دارد، حمایت تجربی برای فرضیه رشد تحت تاثیر واردات نسبتا قویتر است. در برخی موارد، همچنین شواهدی برای علت معکوس رشد ناخالص تولید داخلی برای صادرات و واردات وجود دارد.

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I. Introduction

The potential benefit of outward-oriented tradepolicy for economic growth has been the subject ofmany empirical investigations. Although severalstudies have demonstrated the theoretical economicrelationship between trade and economic growth,disagreements still persists regarding the causaldirection and magnitude of the effects (Bhagwati,1978; Edwards, 1998). The vast majority of thisliterature focuses on the causal effect of export oneconomic growth. The main question in the exportled-growth debate is whether an export-drivenoutward orienting trade policy is preferable to aninward orienting trade policy in stimulating economicgrowth. Some researchers argue that causality flowsfrom exports to economic growth and denotes thisas the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis.The reverse causal flow from economic growthto exports is termed growth-led exports (GLE).The third alternative is that of import-led growth(ILG) which suggests that economic growth could bedriven primarily by growth in imports.Despite the potentially important role of importsand import competition, relatively little attention hasbeen devoted to the causal relationship betweenimports and economic growth. Most studies on theeffect of trade openness on growth have primarilyfocused on the role of exports and have mostlyignored the contribution of imports. However, somerecent studies have shown that without controllingfor imports, any observed causal link between exportsand economic growth may be spurious and thus misleading (Esfahani, 1991; Riezman et al., 1996;Thangavelu and Rajaguru, 2004). Imports may bevery important to economic growth since significantexport growth is usually associated with rapid importgrowth. Furthermore, the export-growth analysesthat exclude imports may be subject to the classicomitted variable problem. The fundamental causalrelationship may actually be between imports andeconomic growth.Although numerous empirical studies haveinvestigated the role of exports in economic growth,they largely focused on Asian economies, withfew studies including Latin America countries.Earlier in their economic development paths,many Latin American economies mostly followedprotectionist trade policies emphasizing the importsubstitutionindustrialization strategy. The currentprevailing view among most development economistsis that the import-substitution approach is detrimentalto economic growth as it inherently fostersproduction inefficiencies and encourages rent-seekingbehaviour. In recent years, many Latin Americancountries have experienced major macroeconomicand trade policy reforms with emphasis onmarket liberalization and trade openness. The fewexisting empirical investigations of the effectof openness on growth in this region have producedmixed and inconclusive results (Riezman et al., 1996;Xu, 1996; Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand, 1999;Richards, 2001).This study investigates the causal relationshipbetween trade and economic growth for three LatinAmerican economies (Argentina, Colombia andPeru) within an integrated framework that exploresthe role of both exports and imports. This studymakes contributions to the literature in several ways.First, in contrast to most previous studies of the ELGhypothesis, this study extends the traditionalneoclassical growth model by estimating an augmentedproduction function that explicitly tests for theeffect of both exports and imports on economicgrowth. Real exports and imports are included as twoof the endogenous variables in the cointegrated vectorautoregression (VAR) model. This modelling frameworkalso makes it possible to test for both the ELGand ILG hypotheses for these Latin Americaneconomies. Second, the article also adopts recentadvances in time series modelling by specifying causalmodels based on vector error correction models(Toda and Phillips, 1993). Thus, in addition to testingfor Granger causality between exports, imports andgrowth, long-run behaviour could also be investigatedvia cointegration and impulse response function(IRF) analyses.The rest of this article is organized as follows.Section II provides a brief theoretical and empiricaloverview of the trade and growth relationship.Section III discusses the analytical framework andsome methodological issues. Section IV presentsempirical findings and Section V contains theconcluding remarks.