دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی اقتصاد پالایش نفت: آگاهی از کسب و کار فرآوری نفت خام به سوخت و سایر محصولات با ارزش افزوده به همراه ترجمه فارسی
|عنوان فارسی مقاله||اقتصاد پالایش نفت: آگاهی از کسب و کار فرآوری نفت خام به سوخت و سایر محصولات با ارزش افزوده|
|عنوان انگلیسی مقاله||The Economics of Petroleum Refining: Understanding the business of processing crude oil into fuels and other value added products|
|رشته های مرتبط||علوم اقتصادی، اقتصاد انرژی و اقتصاد نفت و گاز|
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بخشی از ترجمه فارسی مقاله:
این صنعت در طی سال های اخیر تحت تغییرات ساختاری مهمی قرار گرفته است. از ۱۹۷۰ میلادی، بیش از ۲۰ پالایشگاه بسته شده اند، و این در حالی است که سایر پالایشگاه ها ظرفیت خود را برای افزایش کارایی افزایش داده اند و قدرت رقابتی خود را حفظ کرده اند. اگرچه هیچ پالایشگاه جدیدی در کانادا به مدت ۳۰ سال ساخته نشده است( اخرین مورد در ۱۹۸۴ ساخته شد)، کل ظرفیت پالایشی کانادا به میزان ۲ میلیون بشکه در روز علی رغم بسته شدن بسیاری از پالایشگاه باقی مانده است.
بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:
The industry has undergone important structural changes in recent years. Since 1970, more than 20 refineries have closed, while others have expanded their capacity to increase efficiency and remain competitive. And while no new refinery has been built in Canada for nearly 30 years* (the last was built in 1984), total Canadian refining capacity has remained at or near 2 million bpd, despite the many refinery closures. Current Canadian refining capacity exceeds domestic demand. Canada is a net exporter of refined products. Most exports are destined for United States markets. While no two refineries are identical, they all share a number of common features and processes, and use similar state-of-the-art technologies. Refineries process crude oils, which have different types of hydrocarbons with carbon chains of different lengths, into a broad range of refined products. The refining process separates, breaks, reshapes and recombines the molecules of crude oil into value-added products such as gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel. These essential transportation fuels typically account for 75 percent of output. The remaining 25 percent comprise home heating oil, lubricants, heavy fuel oil, asphalt for roads and feedstocks that the petrochemical industry transforms into hundreds of consumer goods and products that Canadians use and rely on every day—from plastics to textiles to pharmaceutical products. Refinery processing units perform four functions: • separation of the different types of hydrocarbons contained in the feedstocks; • conversion of separated hydrocarbons into more desirable or higher-value products; • treatment of the products to remove unwanted elements and contaminants such as sulphur, nitrogen and metals; and • blending of various hydrocarbon streams to create specific products that comply with quality standards and regulations.
Changing patterns in fuel demand, the trends to processing heavier crudes and increasing refinery complexity, and the growing globalization and trade in refined fuels, have introduced new dynamics to the economics of refining, and have shifted the drivers of refinery profitability. Within North America, recent demand for refined petroleum products has been flat to declining and is forecast to continue on this path. This is true in virtually all OECD nations. Growing refining overcapacity has resulted in recent refinery closures in eastern Canada and the US Eastern seaboard, as well as in Europe and the Caribbean. At the same time, nearly 1 million bpd of new high complexity refining capacity has been added in the United States Gulf Coast.ii Meanwhile, Canada’s upstream crude oil industry is growing. Surging oil sands production is projected to more than double Canada’s crude output between now and 2030.iii Most Canadian crude is landlocked and existing crude pipeline infrastructure is now at or near capacity. New pipeline proposals that would provide market access to Canada’s growing crude oil supply are currently the subject of intense debate and scrutiny. This debate over finding new markets for Canada’s growing crude supply carries over into the refining sector. Some Canadians suggest, indeed expect, that with increasing crude production, Canada’s refining capacity should also grow. They ask why aren’t we refining more of our oil in Canada, and could we not get more value from our petroleum resources from more value added activity – i.e. refining? The purpose of this document is to contribute to informed answers to these questions; to provide insight into the economics of the refining business; and to describe the factors that influence investment decisions and determine refinery profitability.
II. Basic Refinery Economics
In many businesses, profits or losses result primarily from the difference between the cost of inputs and the price of outputs. In order to have a competitive edge, a business must make higher-value products using lower-cost inputs than competitors. In the oil refining business, the cost of inputs (crude oil) and the price of outputs (refined products) are both highly volatile, influenced by global, regional, and local supply and demand changes. Refineries must find the sweet spot against a backdrop of changing environmental regulation, changing demand patterns and increased global competition among refiners in order to be profitable.
New Builds vs. Upgrades Oil refining is a capital-intensive business. Planning, designing, permitting and building a new medium-sized refinery is a 5-7 year process, and costs $7-10 billion, not counting acquiring the land. The cost varies depending on the location (which determines land and construction costs† ), the type of crude to be processed and the range of outputs (both of the latter affect the configuration and complexity of the refinery), the size of the plant and local environmental regulations. The cost of the now shelved project by Irving Oil to build a second 300,000 bpd refinery in Saint John, NB was estimated at $8+ billion. The projected cost of the proposed 550,000 bpd Kitimat Clean refinery is $13 billion. The first 50,000 bpd phase of the new North West Redwater Partnership 150,000 bpd bitumen refinery near Edmonton, AB, Canada’s first new refinery in 30 years, has an estimated cost of $5.7 billion. Adding new capacity or complexity to an existing refinery is also expensive. The recent 45,000 bpd expansion of the Consumers Co-op refinery in Regina, SK cost $2.7 billion. After the refinery is built, it is expensive to operate. Fixed costs include personnel, maintenance, insurance, administration and depreciation. Variable costs include crude feedstock, chemicals and additives, catalysts, maintenance, utilities and purchased energy (such as natural gas and electricity). To be economically viable, the refinery must keep operating costs such as energy, labour and maintenance to a minimum. Like most other commodity processors (such as food, lumber and metals), oil refiners are price takers: in setting their individual prices, they adapt to market prices.‡ This is particularly true for Canadian refineries that operate and compete in an integrated North American market. They “take” wholesale prices that reflect trading activity on markets like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). When commodity trading causes US wholesale prices to rise, Canadian wholesale prices rise to ensure the product remains in Canada. Otherwise, US buyers would purchase lower-priced Canadian fuel, leaving Canada in short supply. Conversely, when US wholesale prices decline, so too do Canadian prices. If not, Canadian retailers would buy cheaper, wholesale fuel from the US. Therefore, the prices of the products that are sold in Canada are influenced by the vagaries of the exchange rate and supply and demand in the US