دانلود مقاله ترجمه شده تاثیر مدلینگ مالی جهانی سازی نوع بی ۲ بر عکس العمل آن در اقتصاد حقیقی – مجله الزویر

فهرست مطالب:

 چکیده
۱ مقدمه
۲ شیوه
۳ مدلسازی جهانی شدن تیپ ۲b
۱ ۳ بازارهای مالی متقابلاً تحت تاثیرقرارگرفته محرک قیمت های جهانی
۲ ۳ واکنش بازارهای مالی به اقتصاد واقعی
۴ ملاحظات پایانی

بخشی از ترجمه:

۴٫ ملاحظات پایانی
جهانی شدن مالی موضوعی دوراز دسترس می باشد که تاثیری بیشتر از حد به تصویر کشیده در قسمت فوق در این مدل ساده شده برجای می گذارد، در اینجا تنها اثرات سوداگری و احتکار بر قیمت های کالا و پیامد و نتیجه قیمت های فرار کالاها بر دینامیک اقتصاد واقعی مدلسازی شده است. با این وجود علی رغم این که هدف اصلی مقاله حاضر قضاوت در مورد تاثیر منفی سوداگری مالی نامحدود بر اقتصاد واقعی نیست، ۹۰ درصد از سوداگری اضافی مقایسه شده با نیاز حقیقی، بایدمجددً اندازه گیری شود.
با این مقاله و مدلسازی جهانی شدن مالی تیپ ۲b و اهمیتش راجع به سیر تکامل دیگر تیپ های جهانی شدن اقتصاد واقعی ، یکی از معیارهای اصلی مدل تیپ های جهانی شدن مطرح اما کاملاً اجرا نشده است. در واقع، فضایی برای بهبود و تشریح هر چه بیشتر مدلسازی برجای می ماند. حال، با استفاده از مدارک اقتصادسنجی، مدلسازی تجربی و نظری را همزمان باهم باید تائید نمود.

بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:

۱٫ Introduction Economic cycles are described in scholastic literature as the imbalance of demand and supply; however, what is causing the imbalance usually is not taken into consideration by the modeling. We have not to go back * Bruno G. Rüttimann, Dr.-Ing., MBA, Tel.: +41-79-9493173 E-mail address: brunoruettimann@bluewin.ch. or ruettimannbrunog@ethz.ch © ۲۰۱۴ The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of ICOAE 2014 Bruno G. Rü ttimann / Procedia Economics and Finance 14 ( 2014 ) 534 – ۵۴۳ ۵۳۵ to the “Black Friday” of 1929 to analyze the far leading interaction of finance and economy; crisis or abnormal economic situations have become more frequent in recent times. Take the subprime-generated financial crisis of 2007 which evolved in 2008 into a huge global economy crisis drawing many companies into bankruptcy, reducing global trade volume by 23% and increasing temporarily unemployment by an additional 20 million people, forcing governments to inject billions of dollars to avoid the disaster of a collapsing bank system. An example of another kind: High frequency computer assisted trading on stock exchanges lead to a temporary collapse of the Wall Street, already on October 1987 becoming famous under the label “Black Monday” which had consequences on the stock exchanges of Tokyo, Sydney, Hong Kong, making the tour around the world. The global information system makes the Butterfly-Effect become reality. If that is applied to commodity trading where prices are fixed for raw materials, prices which are of immense importance to the whole world industry and therefore economy, it is a disaster. The merely pure financial “paper trading” on commodity exchanges is already a multiple of real physically backed-up transactions, with misleading price notations through hysteric short-term behavior of speculative financial actors not reflecting anymore the real underlying price of the object of business. Moreover, new financial instruments for financial investors have been “invented” based on indexes of underlying assets, investments having rather the feel of betting and gambling. If these are based on stock indexes, this might not matter, but if physical commodities are stocked, as was the case with the Goldman Sachs copper ETF, blocking physically industry metal for speculation purpose, one should be concerned. In addition, if financial institutions are also managing physic warehousing and hindering consignment of e.g. aluminum ingots to industry in order to increase premiums for prompt delivery due to lucrative extended financing period supported by Contango and low interest rates, as it has been the case during recent years [1], the financial systems becomes a serious problem. The financial system is developing into a parasitic system with dangerous self-dynamic, a system which is not isolated but thru mutual interactions having heavy repercussions on the globally interlinked industry system – industry and services creating real value and progress for the whole society. Let us think back, what was the purpose of commodity and stock exchanges originally. It was a place where capital lenders met entrepreneurs and where hedging of physical positions could be settled with risk takers. Today, commodity and stock exchanges have mutated to a playground for casino capitalism harming and, in some cases, even impeding progress of industry and trade. Nobody denies the need for speculative operators taking the risk in the derivative markets, which are necessary that the industry system can work but not in a two digit multiple factor of really physically backed-up positions. Financial speculators like volatile markets with high β-factors, entrepreneurs and industrialist prefer stability. This is not a sustainable situation. The present paper has not the intention to judge the ethic behavior of financial operators such as Soros, the inventor of hedge funds, neither his advocates of deregulation such as Krugman nor to discuss the ideas of his antagonist Stiglitz, or Minsky, and Kindleberger. It intends to show the harm of an exaggerated even locally confined financial speculation activity and its effects on the global scale of industry business. It is a proposal to describe in a simplified way, with all its limitations, the complex interactions of the financial system with the system of the real economy, all that in order to be integrated into a larger context, i.e. to finalize the comprehensive Globalization Types Model presented first in 2004 [2] and expanded upon in 2007 [3].